Is the West considering replacing Israel with Iran? A strategic reading of shifts in geopolitical alliances in the Middle East

 Written by abdelkebir belafsahi and translating by us

:Introduction

In a global moment fraught with transformations, questions that seemed “impossible” two decades ago are now being seriously addressed. Most notable is whether the West is considering replacing Israel with Iran.

This question is no longer confined to radical platforms or conspiracy theories. It is now being discussed in prestigious research centers, focusing on energy issues, regional security interests, and the tensions between values ​​and interests in Western foreign policy

First: Israel… A Historical Ally in Trouble

Brookings Institution researcher Nathan Brown says, “American support for Israel is no longer as guaranteed as it once was, not because interests have changed, but because Israel’s image has changed in the eyes of new generations of decision-makers.” The recent war on Gaza and the accusations against Israel of war crimes have prompted European officials to express, for the first time, “embarrassment” over the unconditional defense of Tel Aviv. In Washington, recent Pew Research polls (2024) indicate that more than 60% of Americans under the age of 35 believe the United States should be more neutral in the Palestinian-Israeli conflict

Second: Iran… A “Possible Adversary,” Not an “Absolute Enemy”

Despite a long legacy of hostility, Western think tanks, such as the International Crisis Group, are demonstrating a new trend toward engaging with Iran with increasing pragmatism. American political analyst Trita Parsi, vice president of the Quincy Institute, says, “Iran is not the absolute revolutionary state it was 40 years ago. Rather, it has negotiable regional interests, and the West has more to gain by containing it through deals, not through open confrontation.” The annual report of the International Energy Agency (IEA) shows that the full return of Iranian oil and gas to global markets could reduce Europe’s dependence on Russia by 12% over five years

Third: Is there a shift in the essence of alliances?..s

According to Foreign Affairs magazine (April 2025 issue), “There is a debate within US decision-making circles about the feasibility of absolute reliance on Israel versus opening a parallel channel with Iran that enhances regional stability.” The magazine adds that “Israel can no longer play the role of a model moral ally after the series of violations documented by human rights organizations such as Human Rights Watch.” In contrast, the Stratfor geopolitical intelligence institute notes that “Iran is strengthening its regional role as a balancing force, not just as a destructive force, especially after its opening up to China and the restoration of relations with Saudi Arabia.”

Fourth: The three possible scenarios

Scenario 1: A cautious rapprochement, whereby the West opens up to Iran economically (especially Europe), without compromising its alliance with Israel. This is the most realistic scenario in the short term

Scenario 2: A grand bargain, in which Iran abandons its regional tools, namely cross-border alliances, and leads a broad axis of local armed actors loyal to or coordinating to varying degrees with Tehran. These include Hezbollah in Lebanon, the Popular Mobilization Forces in Iraq, the Houthis in Yemen, and even support for Hamas and Islamic Jihad in Gaza. All these concessions are made in exchange for a full return to markets and recognition as a legitimate regional partner. This scenario is possible if Israel’s popularity in the West continues to decline

Scenario 3: Strategic replacement, which is the weakest, could only be achieved if Israel’s legitimacy collapses domestically and internationally, and Iran transforms into a moderate democratic model. This scenario is remote, but not impossible in the long term, and could be achieved within 15–20 years

Fifth: The Arabs are at the mercy of the new balance

Saudi researcher Abdulaziz Al-Ghannam, a researcher at the Gulf Studies Center, commented, “The Gulf is anxiously watching the Western opening to Iran, but it has begun to develop its own tools to move away from absolute dependence on Washington.” This is because Saudi Arabia has restored relations with Tehran, the UAE has opened economic channels, and even Qatar is building a balance between its American partnership and its relationship with Iran. Meanwhile, the Palestinian issue has regained global momentum and has become a true test of “Western values” in the face of its alliances

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In conclusion, the West has not yet “abandoned” Israel, nor has it yet “adopted” Iran. However, the game is changing, as the world is not returning to the old order, but rather is being reshaped around shifting interests and new strategic weights. Amid all this change, Israel remains less stable than it was, Iran remains more flexible than it appears, and the Middle East remains, as always, a theater of change, not repetition